Macro & Markets

If a market thesis was created 20 days ago, how should we judge it today?

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A lot of market ideas sound convincing when they are first posted, but it is hard to remember how they actually played out.

One format I want to test in Index-Rank is a retrospective strategy review:

  • define the thesis
  • turn it into a model portfolio
  • track the simulated performance
  • compare it with benchmarks
  • discuss what worked and what did not

This is not about proving a prediction was right. It is about making market ideas easier to evaluate after time has passed.

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